Breaking Down the Cardinals' Brutal 2026 Schedule

My breakdown of the 2026 Arizona Cardinals schedule. For a 4th place schedule, the Cardinals don't really catch much of a break. Let's dive into it.

Currently holding the hardest schedule (32nd) and the lowest win total via Vegas at 4.5. I don't lean too heavily into strength of schedule for multiple reasons: new coaches on multiple teams, new additions via free agency/draft, injuries either from last season or upcoming, and luck-involved factors. However, the win total is something I keep an eye on.

My prediction is the under on the total wins (under 4.5), but I do think it could range somewhere between 3–6 wins pending some luck and/or short weeks, etc. I can see the Cardinals selecting towards the top of the 2027 NFL Draft — which might not be the worst thing.

Winnable games: I have both the Jets and Raiders as winnable games. Both games are at home, and I view these teams in a similar light to the Cardinals in terms of talent, roster construction, and win totals.

Lean-loss games: I think the Saints, Giants, and Commanders all got better to some extent this offseason. I think the Cardinals were lucky to come away with a win against a lesser Saints team in 2025 — Shough did not play.

Projected losses: we might sneak a game off a rival in the West, but I struggle to see it. The 49ers also had a ton of injuries like we did last season, whereas the Rams and Hawks are prime Super Bowl contenders. The remaining teams all got better personnel-wise.

Why am I low on the Cardinals? I was nowhere near as high on the Cardinals entering the 2025 season as some others who predicted 12+ wins. That entire offseason, I said the OL needed to be addressed — the Cardinals did zero work there. This, along with losing Klayton Adams, was a major factor in the Cardinals' failure in 2025 — 31st in EPA/rush and top-5 in sacks allowed, to name a couple.

I'm lower on the Cardinals this upcoming season not only due to multiple holes on the roster — still, in Ossenfort's 4th year, primarily at EDGE, LB, and RT — but also due to the brutal schedule, playing multiple good teams while the lesser teams have all been bolstered from the prior season.

The Cardinals' edge room was bottom-5 in both sacks and pressures, and nothing was done to address the position group. The Cardinals had multiple options at LB via free agency and the draft — selecting a special-teams player late on Day 3 and a nose-tackle-type run defender doesn't solve this LB room. Mack Wilson is also in the final year of his deal, coming off IR. The Cardinals' RT position might have been the league's worst last season — "addressed" by adding a Wilkinson.

The retention of Nick Rallis — who was worse than Drew Petzing in each season on an EPA/play basis and multiple other metrics — doesn't give me much confidence in this defense getting better. I don't rate Rallis very highly, and I think his unit will be a big reason, just like it was in 2025, for the team failing to secure wins.

The bottom line: this team has failed to carry out what should have been a full rebuild, and to be in a position to compete. This comes down to multiple poor decisions and planning on the GM's part — from no direct route to a new QB, to tampering to hire Gannon, to multiple mistakes via free agency and the draft. We've seen multiple teams — the Dolphins being the latest example — strip things down to the studs and properly rebuild. Not the Cardinals under Ossenfort, who had the perfect opportunity to pivot to a rookie QB in the 2024 class — they would have picked first or second with Kyler not playing that year, or staying on IR. Whether or not you wanted to keep Kyler, Ossenfort didn't, and therefore he should be held accountable in my book. End of story.

Instead, with no plan, the Cardinals are in the worst spot — no QB on the roster, no solidified route to obtain one, having whiffed on high draft picks, and potentially stuck in a position where a desperate GM makes stupid moves to try to save his job, not the moves that are best or correct to get this team back on track.

For the crowd wanting to win now: I get that creating a winning culture is very important, but let's be real — the Cardinals are not winning many games this year. If you want me to sugarcoat things, that's not my style. Winning 3 games or winning 6 games is no different — you just potentially miss out on a top QB, because the draft is the only way to find your QB in this day and age. Kyle Shanahan won 6 and 4 games over his first two seasons before making two trips to the Super Bowl. Hopefully we have the HC — next step is to get the QB.

Light at the end of the tunnel: the 2027 QB class is extremely intriguing. Before you comment "we say that every year" — this is a universal thought, not just in the social media draft space, but around the league too. It reminds me of when Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were the #1 and #2 the entire year of their class. The 2027 class is drastically better than the 2026 class. This should be a "take your medicine" type of year for the Cardinals.

Best case scenario: selecting your QB in 2027 (#MarchForArch), moving on from Rallis and Ossenfort, bringing in a good DC, and bringing in a new GM.

The #1 overall pick — or a very high pick in a loaded class; I lean Miami having the first overall pick, but it's between Miami and Arizona for me — with a new facility coming in the future, this should be a much more attractive spot than it was in the prior cycle. Especially if that pick is Arch Manning — you'd be kidding yourself if you think that wouldn't have pull in multiple areas.

Final prediction: 4–13.

By Az Jace — @azjace